Polls Are Not Accurate: Dem Radio Pundit Says

The reasoning is this: polling relies on land lines, which are used overwhelmingly by older voters. Young voters have cell phones.

OK. I can see the logic. But I have a question. How is it that the polls were SO incredibly accurate two years ago, but today they are hopelessly flawed. Two years ago they showed Obama up by five percent. They now show generic Republicans up by ten percent. Yes, the same Republicans that this radio guy says are still the party of "NO" with "no new ideas". He can't understand why voters would want a party like that to lead America.

Kind of sad. This commenter can't admit that Democrat failures and nullification of voters' wishes could lead to such virulent disenchantment. He takes no responsibility at all. He can't begin to point out that voters are pursuing a new brand of non-incumbent Republicans. Like maybe some real Conservatives. And that even the oldest, stuffiest incumbent Republican is better than the bluest Blue Dog Democrat, because at least they don't take their marching orders from Obama/Reid/Pelosi.  Americans have suffered much these past two years at the hands of Democrats, and we have learned some hard lessons.

Come on, Dems. Wake up and smell the polls. Americans are burning with a fire for November. We can't wait to elect grown ups to government. We can't wait to throw the socialists out of office and repeal socialist programs like Obamacare that continue to poison the economy and stifle private sector job growth. Is that so hard to understand? Is that so hard to admit?

Hoffman Leads Big in Polling

Doug Hoffman has a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District.

In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.

Polling the race was a little haphazard in a weekend with many twists and turns but Hoffman showed a similar lead at all junctures. In interviews conducted before Scozzafava announced the suspension of her campaign Hoffman led Owens 49-31 with 17% going to Scozzafava. Poll respondents Saturday afternoon/evening and early Sunday afternoon were informed that Scozzafava had dropped out but that her name would still be on the ballot. During that period of time Hoffman led Owens 51-34 with Scozzafava's share going down to 12%. After Scozzafava announced she was endorsing Owens the remaining Sunday respondents were informed of that and the race showed a little tightening with Hoffman up 52-38 on Owens and Scozzafava's share dropping to 7%.

The bottom line though is that Hoffman led by double digits during every segment of the poll, an indication that he may have been headed for a definitive victory regardless of Scozzafava's actions over the course of the weekend.

Hoffman is leading Scozzafava 71-15 among Republicans with 12% going to Owens. Among Democrats Owens gets 67% to 21% for Hoffman and 10% for Scozzafava. Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.

One key finding that may have ultimately scuttled Scozzafava's candidacy: 59% of Republicans considered her to be a liberal and only 7% thought she was a conservative. By comparison 80% of them consider Hoffman to be a conservative, and that's a good thing where nearly two thirds of GOP voters define themselves that way.

Republican voters also appear to be considerably more energized about the election than Democrats. While Barack Obama won a narrow victory in NY-23 last year, those planning to vote in this race supported John McCain by a 51-43 margin. Obama's approval rating with likely voters is just 39%.

We will have much more on NY-23 over the next 24 hours.

Full results here

Hat Tip Public Policy Polling.

Who knows how the election will go?

I certainly don't.

But I will be following the IBD Tipp Poll now, instead of the other polls, because it turned out to be the most accurate poll in the 2004 election.

Yesterday, October 23rd, it had Obama with a 1.1 percentage point lead over McCain. Today, October 24th, Obama has a 3.5 point lead. However things turn out, I want all my friends to know that there are no hard feelings.

Besides, whoever doesn't win will be able to shake their finger in a few years and say, "I told ya so!"